Quarantine Journals - Latest news brief from grandpa



---------- Forwarded message ---------
From: esmat salahat <e.salahat67@gmail.com>
Date: Mon, May 25, 2020 at 2:08 PM
Subject: The CDC started recently combining the results of two different types of tests!
To: Tania Cardenas <taniamc@gmail.com>, Brandon <bjsalahat@gmail.com>, Richard Cardenas <renuvian@gmail.com>


Did you notice rate of death relative to infections has dropped to 5.93% from 6.02%!
US Rate of infections per day is on the rise & globally, however, @ a faster rate globally, so US rate relative to global rate dropped Now to 30.3% from 31.0% (May 20th).
Started looking into it, for articles that may have noted this noticeable change!

The U.S. death toll from the coronavirus that causes COVID-19 edged closer to 100,000 on Saturday, as the news emerged that the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has been combining the results of two different types of tests for the illness in a move that has been sharply criticized by health experts.

The CDC has been combining diagnostic test results, which show whether a patient currently has the virus, with antibody test results that measure whether someone has ever had the virus, the Atlantic magazine reported. The CDCconfirmed the report to MarketWatch.

"This is not merely a technical error," the Atlantic wrote. "States have set quantitative guidelines for reopening their economies based on these flawed data points." 

The story cited Ashish Jha, the K. T. Li Professor of Global Health at Harvard and the director of the Harvard Global Health Institute, as saying the two tests provide totally different signals. By combining them, the agency has made both sets of results "uninterpretable."

"How could the CDC make that mistake?" he asked. "This is a mess."

Would this be, in principle, similar to what China did, false reporting, Criticized by the US!

There was an interview on TV with an employee, She was fired due to disagreeing with the method & tried to reported Accurate numbers.

Do not trust your government relating to COVID stats. Disgraceful.

Today, Saturday May 25th @ 2pm, US infections count is now running at 30.3% (1,653,900/5,462,500).

US COVID deaths, compared to COVID global deaths, is now @ 28.45% (98,000/344,500).

US death rate relative to US reported infections count is @ 5.93% (98,000/1,653,900).

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Fed's balance sheet tops $7 trillion, shows increased buying of corporate bond ETFs

What next will the fed do! Speculation, as noted by the Fed speakers last week, the Fed has many tools left, one of them is treasury bonds yield curve control, which is also being used by japan & has been for many years. In other words, the fed will set the interest rate & will do everything possibly to protect it, no longer a free market!
Look where it got Japanese economy & stock markets has not seen the highs set in 1989, for almost 3 decades now. They used to refer to it as the lost decade, 2 decades ago!
Fed's chairman voiced concern about equity valuation, yet the Fed's action is causing it!
& the fed was concerned about equity values pre COVID-19, Nasdaq 100 is testing new all time highs now!
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'The 1918 Spanish flu's second wave was even more devastating': Americans brace for another coronavirus outbreak in the fall


"We've seen evidence that the concerns Covid-19 would go south in the southern hemisphere like flu [are coming true], and you're seeing what's happening in Brazil now," Redfield told the U.K. paper, "and then when the southern hemisphere is over I suspect it will re-ground itself in the north." 

"This simple respiratory viral pathogen has really brought my nation to its knees, and the reality is, it's no one particular person's fault," he added. (A Columbia University study released this week said up to 36,000 lives could have been saved had U.S. economy shut down even one week earlier.)

Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases for more than three decades, previously declared, "We will have coronavirus in the fall. I am convinced of that." He previously said the "ultimate game changer" will be a vaccine, but that could take 12 to 18 months.

"If we're not expecting a second wave or a mutation of this virus, then we have learned nothing," New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo added, calling it a "new normal" for public health in the U.S. "That is why it is such an important period for government."

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/we-will-not-have-a-vaccine-by-next-winter-what-happens-when-coronavirus-returns-2020-04-22

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The World Health Organization said lessons could be learned from Sweden — now its daily deaths are soaring!

Sweden was seen as a model for countries tackling coronavirus without economic disruption


Sweden's daily death toll per 1 million people is now 8.71, compared with 4.59 in the U.S.

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Highly rated U.S. companies are borrowing $1 trillion at a record clip.


BofA tracks $1 trillion of corporate credit rating downgrades too.


This CreditSights chart shows how revenue growth already was slumping at highly rated U.S. companies even before the coronavirus left many industries with flat, or negative growth, in the first quarter.

That is the quickest clip ever for new investment-grade corporate bond supply to kick off a year, with new bond issuance topping $1 trillion in less than five months.

The old "bait and switch," common during bull markets, is alive and well. "They offer a nice, attractive spread to get people interested and then walk it in aggressively,"

What could go wrong? While a lot of attention has been paid to new borrowing activity, there also has been a blistering pace of credit-ratings firm downgrades hitting U.S. investment-grade companies, with BofA tracking more than $1 trillion since the end of February.

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Out-of-whack stock and bond prices say something troubling about the coronavirus economy


Main Street is taking it on the chin, but Wall Street may wind up doing pretty well


"Bonds and industrial commodities tend to reflect the outlook for the real economy (i.e., Main Street) whereas stocks reflect the outlook for corporate earnings"!
Bull shit, corporate earnings have been going down for 2 years now, concealed by Setting lowered earnings targets & benefitting from stock buyback (close to $700 billion last year). Analysts keep pushing back when earnings will finally rise (promises missed Q after Q, since end of 2018) Avg P/E ratio is around 21 now (not considering High flying stocks with negative P/E or extremely high P/E) when it typically is the range of 8 to 10, during a recession. Look at the prior recessions P/E ratios.
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Bill that could delist Chinese companies from U.S. stock exchanges passed.

Senators to propose sanctioning Chinese officials over Hong Kong security law


China to impose new national-security laws on Hong Kong, dealing a blow to the territory's autonomy, the Journal wrote.

China firmly opposes latest U.S. sanctions against Chinese firms over Xinjiang


China's foreign ministry says it deplores and firmly opposes the latest U.S. sanctions against Chinese firms over Xinjiang, adding that it is purely China's internal affair. 

China's foreign ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian made the comments Monday at a daily briefing. 

The U.S. Commerce Department said Friday it is sanctioning nine Chinese companies and institutions saying they were "complicit in human rights violations and abuses committed in China's campaign of repression, mass arbitrary detention, forced labor and high-technology surveillance against Uighurs" and others.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-china-xinjiang/china-firmly-opposes-latest-u-s-sanctions-against-chinese-firms-over-xinjiang-idUSKBN2310QB

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Fed's Powell says less-well-off Americans are bearing the brunt of the economic fallout from the coronavirus


The economic fallout from the coronavirus pandemic is falling on poorer Americans, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Thursday.

"We are in the midst of an economic downturn without modern precedent," Powell said, in remarks at the start of a central bank forum for voices outside of Wall Street called "Fed Listens."

The economic downturn was sudden and severe, erasing all the job gains of the past decade.

"And while the burden is widespread, it has not been evenly spread," Powell said. 

"Those taking the brunt of the fallout are those least able to bear it."

The Fed chairman said earlier this month that the path ahead for the economy is highly uncertain and risky.


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FTC warns another 50 companies over unsubstantiated claims for treatments for COVID-19


The Federal Trade Commission said Thursday it has sent letters to another 50 companies warning them to stop making unsubstantiated claims that their products can treat or prevent COVID-19, the illness caused by the novel coronavirus.
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Facebook rallies toward longest win streak in 3 years


Facebook Inc. stock was up 1.6%
 Friday, for a seventh-straight gain and third-straight record close & has now soared 27.7% since April 29--it has gained in 15 of 18 sessions since then--which was the day before the social media company reported Q1 profit that missed lowered expectations but revenue that beat. 
Analysts & managers were dumping FB to $146 a couple of months ago & now are racing to upgrade the stock when they pumped up to $236! The same reasons they dumped it are still in play! Market cap @ $669 Billion.
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Day Trading Has Replaced Sports Betting as America's Pastime. It Can't Support the Stock Market Forever.

With "zero fee" trading!
Retail Investors beware! 
Where optimism is at an extremely high level. Contradictory indicator!

A record 48% of fund managers are overweight healthcare stocks, and the S&P 500 healthcare sector is up nearly 34% since its March low, because it was one of the worst performing sector, analysts started recommending the sector saying they saw value in lower prices!
Moderna and Inovio Pharmaceutcials, up 253% and 327%, Easy Money!
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Explainer: How ending Hong Kong's 'special status' could affect U.S. companies


A revocation of the special status would cause problems for the more than 1,300 American companies with business operations in Hong Kong, including nearly every major U.S. financial firm. The State Department said 85,000 U.S. citizens lived in Hong Kong in 2018.


"Fear of Hong Kong fallout is once again hitting some big companies in London".

Not US markets, unlike last time when US markets Dropped even though back then it was based on speculation of such action by China!


It may lead to the collapse of Phase I trade war deal between US & China, death to promised Phase II or Phase III
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Airport travelers jump to 2-month high, but airline stocks fall


Data from the Transportation Security Administration (TSA) show the number of travelers that went through TSA checkpoints topped 300,000 on Friday, for the first time in two months, but was still down significantly from a year ago.

  • In 2019, Memorial Day holiday, 3.25 million people took to the skies.
  • Wall Street took this to mean a recovery has begun!
  • Soon, Wall Street will begin to recommend airline stock, to cash in their positions, after buying enough at discounted prices!
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  • Xi says China could have set GDP growth goal around 6% had there been no coronavirus


  • The Chinese government on Friday omitted a gross domestic product (GDP) growth target for 2020 in its yearly work report unveiled at the start of the annual meeting of parliament, citing uncertainties brought on by the epidemic. While US trump administration is predicting US economy to rocket like never before!, by end of this year!

  • https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-parliament-economy-xi/xi-says-china-could-have-set-gdp-growth-goal-around-6-had-there-been-no-coronavirus-idUSKBN2300EU

  • In the first quarter, China's economy contracted for the first time in decades. Due to uncertainties cast by the global pandemic, China's communist leaders decided against setting a growth target.

  • ________________________________________

Warren Buffett (oracle of Omaha!) has lost at least $7 billion from his last 3 big investments.

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U.S. gives AstraZeneca $1.2 billion to fund Oxford University coronavirus vaccine — America would get 300 million doses beginning in October


The agreement would make 300 million doses of the vaccine available in the U.S., with the first doses delivered in October, the U.S. Department of Health & Human Services said on Thursday.

The U.S. has also supported vaccine efforts by Moderna, France's Sanofi, and Johnson & Johnson, as part of the Trump administration's "Operation Warp Speed" initiative.

AstraZeneca said it has now secured orders for 400 million doses and has the manufacturing capacity for 1 billion doses — the first of which could be delivered in September if the Oxford vaccine proves successful.

Last week, all news media were questioning the company on who would have 1st right to get the Cure, when the company doesn't even has one yet, Trying & hoping to come up with some promising results! surely not ready to be given to millions of US citizens any time soon.      
You can count me out, until plenty of time has passed After a large scale human trials.

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U.S. scientist says don't rely on a vaccine, job losses continue


William Haseltine, a scientist, biotech entrepreneur, and infectious disease expert, is chair and president of the global health think tank ACCESS Health International, and said the best way to manage the pandemic is through measures such as isolation, testing and contact tracing and observing social-distancing, face masks and frequent hand washing. Haseltine made the comments in a video interview with Reuters. 

 "Do not listen to the politicians who say we're going to have one by the time my re election comes around," he said. "Maybe we will (but) I'm just saying it's not a slam-dunk case by any means ... because every time people have tried to make a vaccine – for SARS or MERS – it hasn't actually protected."

His comments came as the director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention warned that the virus is likely to return in the fall and winter and may force a fresh round of lockdown measures

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/coronavirus-update-global-case-tally-passes-5-million-us-scientist-says-dont-rely-on-a-vaccine-job-losses-continue-2020-05-21

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U.S. state unemployment payments in April jump 5-fold from February


The U.S. Labor Department reported on Thursday another 2.4 million people filed for unemployment benefits for the first time last week, bringing total filings since mid-March to nearly 39 million.

https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-economy-unemployment-payments/u-s-state-unemployment-payments-in-april-jump-5-fold-from-february-idUSL1N2D30UU

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Jobless claims jump 2.4 million in mid-May — but the number is almost 1 million higher when federal filings are included

Since the coronavirus pandemic and lockdowns started in mid-March, some 35.5 million people have applied for jobless benefits through their states, based on actual or unadjusted totals.

Roughly 8.1 million new claims have been filed via a new federal program that has made self-employed workers and independent contractors such as writers or Uber drivers eligible for the first time ever.

Total new claims since mid-March: almost 44 million.

Not all of these people are receiving benefits, however. Some have had their applications rejected, while others found a new job and still others returned to work.

Continuing claims reported by the states, a close proxy for how many people are getting benefits, rose to an unadjusted 22.9 million from 20.9 million in the week ended May 9. These claims are reported with a one-week lag.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/jobless-claims-jump-44-million-in-mid-may-as-applications-for-federal-benefits-surge-2020-05-21

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In cash-rich Japan, a fifth of firms now see risk of insufficient capital


 One in five Japanese companies are worried they may not have sufficient capital if the coronavirus crisis persists, a Reuters poll showed on Thursday, underscoring how even some of the world's biggest cash-hoarding firms are bracing for prolonged pain.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-japan-companies/in-cash-rich-japan-a-fifth-of-firms-now-see-risk-of-insufficient-capital-idUSKBN22W3AF

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Former IMF chief economist says Fed's bond-buying is 'smoke and mirrors,' doesn't solve U.S. debt problems


The Federal Reserve's massive bond buying to stabilize financial markets in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic does not change the fact that the U.S. still has to deal with a mountain of debt, warned former IMF chief economist Ken Rogoff.

Noting the Fed's willingness to expand its balance sheet has helped to convince market participants to keep buying U.S. Treasury debt as the fiscal deficit soars, Rogoff said the central bank's purchases did not change the overall stock of public debt.

"It's absolute smoke and mirrors. There's almost zero difference from the Fed buying long-term Treasury debt and having the Treasury issue short-term bonds," said Rogoff, in an interview. "I think people forget that the Treasury owns the Fed."

The Congressional Budget Office has estimated that the fiscal deficit will rise to about $3.7 trillion this fiscal year or about 18% of GDP (will end up higher than 18%). The federal debt held by the public is also seen rising to more than 100% of GDP from about 80% at the end of last fiscal year.

Investors were surprised by China projected fiscal deficit to reach 3.9% of GDP, above last year's 2.8%!

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/former-imf-chief-economist-says-feds-bond-buying-is-smoke-and-mirrors-doesnt-solve-us-debt-problems-2020-05-20

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Existing-home sales plummet 18% in April as the coronavirus pandemic stymies real-estate activity

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Ford temporarily halted production in Chicago plant because of COVID-19 cases


Ford Motor Co. said Wednesday it had to temporarily close a plant making SUVs in the Chicago area because of two COVID-19 cases. The plant was closed for several hours on Tuesday May 20th, a day after the car maker resumed production and operations in the U.S., and has since resumed operations, the company said. Ford said Monday it had implemented "robust safety and care measures globally" to be able to resume production safely, it said
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Companies with active share repurchase programs funded by low-cost debt are de facto selling put options on their own shares.

Since 2009, the purchases accounted for as much as half of all earnings-per-share increases and around one-third of price gains.
The explicit or implicit use of options entails leverage. For example, in 2018, a dislocation in a $50 billion market of volatility funds resulted in an estimated $5 trillion overall loss in global stocks!
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Facebook employees may face pay cut if they move to cheaper areas to work from home


Zuckerberg says he expects half of Facebook employees to work remotely in the future


As of 2018, the median employee compensation at Facebook was more than $240,000 a year. The median home price in Menlo Park, Calif., where the tech giant has its headquarters, is $2.4 million, according to Zillow, while the median home price in the wider Bay Area was $928,000 last year.

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EU must present united front to shield pandemic-hit banks: regulator

Notice that every one wants more money from governments. Japan announced another $1 trillion Package. France & Germany announced $550 billion rescue package, however, it must be approved by all members of the Euro, it could be dead before it even gets started.


FRANKFURT (Reuters) - European countries need to join forces to shield their banks from the coronavirus outbreak, one of the bloc's top regulators said on Monday, potentially using a 500 billion euro ($545 billion) EU recovery fund to do so.

The remarks from Jose Manuel Campa, who leads the European Banking Authority (EBA), will rekindle a divisive debate about whether rich countries such as Germany should support banks of poorer neighbours such as Italy.

Campa made his comments days after German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Emmanuel Macron proposed an EU recovery fund to help the bloc's worst-hit members to rebuild their economies after the coronavirus outbreak, which is still needs to be approved by the Euro zone countries.

"Banks are resilient and stronger than before the last crisis," said Campa. "But we don't know how the crisis will evolve. It is best to act sooner rather than later."
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Memorial Day weekend draws throngs despite pandemic; Dr. Birx of White House coronavirus task force is 'very concerned' over crowd scenes

Many disregard social-distancing rules as summer kicks off

President shown on TV goofing & refusing to wear a mask!


Trump threatens to move Republican National Convention out of North Carolina


President Donald Trump threatened Monday to pull the Republican National Convention out of North Carolina if the state's Democratic governor, Roy Cooper, doesn't immediately sign off on allowing a full-capacity gathering in August despite the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic.


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Reasons sited for big gains in Monday's stock markets!


Lufthansa secures €9 billion 'stabilization package' from German government


Lufthansa, which has lost most of its passenger business due to travel restrictions during the outbreak, said the government's fund has agreed to take non-voting holdings in return for 5.7 billion euros, plus a 3 billion-euro credit line and 300 million euros in share purchases. Japan, US Fed's, now Euro!


Ahead of that data confirmed a 2.2% slowdown in German first-quarter growth, marking the biggest decline since the financial crisis and pushing the economy into a recession. It was followed Later in the morning, German business sentiment rose in May, beating forecasts as business expectations improved considerably, the Ifo Institute said Monday. 
For now, Feelings (Sentiment) Trumps Reality (Hard #'s).
Another example of Wall Street sentiment Vs Reality, for now!


Shares of heavily-weighed Bayer AG, surged 8% after Bloomberg reported the company has reached deals with 50,000 to 85,000 U.S. cancer lawsuits connected to its weedkiller Roundup. Those sources cited said none of the deals have been signed yet.
 (How many Billions & will this huge number of cases settle/signed any time soon & will other countries follow the US!). As an investor, I would be more worried!


& conditions in Japan are getting Much worse, the government announced another $1 trillion package, days after the last package!
Japan's deficit Currently stands at 202% of Gross Domestic Product & is expected to reach 250% of GDP by 2020 year's end. Japan should be downgraded to junk status, @ 250% GDP. It takes years with strict austerity measures to shave of Deficit by 5%, but japan has no means of doing so, so it keeps going up.
What will happen to the US when deficit reaches 250% of GDP! $55 trillion based on '19 GDP ($170,000 per every US citizen). Not even giving up all social programs & Zero military budget for 20 years will get America back to budget surplus!
So, why Japan currency is considered a safe haven, everybody hides in the Yen during market volatility & Political uncertainty! Which by the way hurts Japan & disliked by Japan, as it hurts exports.
2nd to the $, Yen is considered to be the best of worst options!


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Enough for today's reading.


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